- Samsung is expected to report an 18-fold jump in second-quarter (Q2 2026) operating profit, reaching an estimated 86 trillion won ($56.35 billion), and that figure is said to be driven primarily by global demand for DRAM, NAND, and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) which is outpacing supply and sending chip prices sharply higher.
- Average selling prices for DRAM and NAND surged by 44% and 53% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, allowing Samsung to capture unprecedented high-margin returns. The structural supply-to-demand deficit is forecast to intensify through 2027, with hyperscalers locking in multi-year binding contracts to secure critical chip availability.
- Despite record profits, Samsung still faces risks from rising labor costs, AI investment uncertainty, and pressure in its smartphone business. Analysts say potential AI infrastructure delays pose biggest risk, the rising of memory prices are squeezing the mobile business margin, and employees' bonuses could come in higher than expected—according to Reuters.
Samsung Electronics is expected to report second-quarter operating profit of 86 trillion won (that is about 56.35 billion in equivalent to US-Dollars)—an 18-fold jump from just 4.7 trillion won a year ago, per an LSEG SmartEstimate based on 30 analyst forecasts. It would be Samsung's third straight quarter of record profit. This profit jump is as a result of AI growth that continues to strain memory supply and push chip prices higher.
The booming demand for AI inference infrastructure continuing to outpace supply growth from global memory manufacturers. In fact, the analysts expect the memory market to remain undersupplied at least through next year. As the world's largest memory chipmaker by sales, Samsung's growth is not only coming from HBM, but stronger demand for conventional DRAM and NAND as agentic AI expands into a broader range of computing workloads.
It's worth noting that agentic AI systems need more memory and storage to retain and retrieve data during inference than training-focused AI. Citi Research said DRAM and NAND average selling prices rose 44% and 53% quarter-on-quarter in Q2. This was lower than TrendForce's earlier forecast of 58–63% for DRAM and 70–75% for NAND in Q2, while Nomura expects a further 24% and 25% rise for DRAM and NAND, respectively, in Q3.
Samsung is a major supplier of memory chips to tech giant companies including Apple Inc, Nvidia, and Alphabet (Google) and Apple. Furthermore, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron shares have soared 158%, 273% and 242% respectively this year, pushing all three companies' past $1 trillion in market valuation.
In late May, Samsung averted a large-scale strike with a wage deal allocating 10.5% of the semiconductor division's operating profit to special bonuses. However, some analysts think cumulative bonus provisions could exceed 40 trillion won, which can make accounting timing a wildcard for the headline number.
JPMorgan noted AI memory's share of cloud providers' capex is estimated at 52% this year and expected to exceed 70% next year—and questioned whether that's sustainable. Any drop in AI spending could hurt Samsung and SK Hynix, both of which just committed to a combined 3,200 trillion won (that's about 2.07 trillion in equivalent to US-Dollars) chip capacity expansion in South Korea running from 2026 to 2040.
Note* Samsung reports detailed Q2 earnings later this month (this is a preliminary guidance estimate, due Tuesday, July 7).
