Africa’s digital future still depends on smartphones priced under $200, despite the fact that the market closed 2025 on a strong note. According to new research from Omdia, more than four in every five smartphones sold in Nigeria and across Africa in 2025 were priced below $200. The research shows that 84.4 million smartphones were shipped across Africa in 2025; that is a 13% year-on-year increase and the region’s strongest rebound since 2021.
In the final quarter alone, shipments climbed 14% to 23.1 million units, buoyed by improving currency stability, festive promotions, expanding device-financing schemes, and accelerating 4G adoption. Yet affordability remained central to demand, with 81% of smartphones shipped in 2025 priced below $200, cementing entry-level and budget devices as the backbone of Africa’s mobile economy. Meanwhile, affordability still remains the decisive factor shaping demand on the continent.
Smartphones now account for about 55% of total smartphone shipments in Africa. In Nigeria, the continent’s largest mobile market, where smartphones serve as the primary gateway to the internet, affordability remains a major obstacle to digital inclusion. As of December 2025, the country had 147.52 million mobile internet connections, yet nearly six in ten Nigerians remain offline, according to the GSMA, which cites device costs as a key constraint.
In fact, currency volatility is the major factor that compounded prices and shipment growth. Following foreign exchange reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 2023, the naira depreciated sharply and pushed smartphone prices higher, which led to slow shipment growth in 2024. During that period, smartphones had just 1% shipment growth in the third quarter of the year, reversing the 63% surge recorded in late 2023.
But the conditions improved in 2025 as exchange rates stabilised and financing options expanded. Nigeria’s smartphone shipments returned to growth in the second quarter of the year; it first rose by 10% as exchange rate stability improved before surging 29% in Q3. By Q4 of the same year, the market expanded 25% year-on-year, and that was largely driven by affordable 4G devices in the sub-$200 segment and increased mobile internet usage.
But in Africa as a whole, the change is largely driven by stabilised currencies, 4G adoption, festive-season promotions, vendor affordability campaigns, and early-stage 5G rollouts in markets such as South Africa and Egypt. As of 2025, smartphones' shipment now accounts for roughly 55% of overall shipment in Africa, underscoring the continent’s gradual transition away from feature phones toward entry-level and mid-tier smart devices.
The Analysis
Sub-Saharan Africa outperformed North Africa in the final quarter (Q4 2025), putting the region back to its position as the continent’s primary growth engine. South Africa led the charge with 38% year-on-year growth in Q4, supported by strong prepaid demand. Devices priced under $100 accounted for 22% of shipments; that shows the market’s continued sensitivity to price. Nigeria followed with 25% growth, while Kenya recorded a modest 3% increase as cost-of-living pressures dampened upgrades.
In North Africa, Egypt stood out with 22% growth, aided by local manufacturing advantages and competitive mid-range portfolios from vendors such as Samsung, Xiaomi, and OPPO. Devices priced between $100 and $199 accounted for 60% of Egyptian shipments, rising 19% year-on-year. Algeria grew 5%, while Morocco declined 3% amid higher import duties.
Across the continent, average selling prices rose 11% in Q4 as component costs increased and consumers gradually shifted toward better-specified entry- and mid-tier smartphones.
Vendor dynamics also reflected the pressures at the low end of the market. TRANSSION maintained its leadership position with a 44% market share, though its growth slowed to 3% because of its heavy exposure to ultra-low-price tiers. Samsung delivered one of the strongest performances of the quarter, with 27% growth (its best Q4 showing since 2010), which is supported by portfolio depth and cost absorption across its Galaxy A-series.
Xiaomi grew 12% through stronger channel execution and more localised strategies. Meanwhile, HONOR sustained double-digit annual growth for a second consecutive year. The company expanded beyond South Africa into Egypt and Morocco. OPPO posted 26% growth, strengthening its position in Egypt and East Africa by targeting mid-range and premium segments. But despite all these strong finishes to 2025, Omdia forecasts a sharp 23% decline in smartphone shipments across Africa in 2026.
The reason is simple: the market’s dependence on sub-$200 devices leaves it highly exposed to component inflation and rising bills of materials. As prices climb, prepaid users and first-time buyers, who form the bulk of demand, may delay upgrades, opt for lower configurations, or turn to refurbished alternatives. But the slowdown is expected to vary by country because nations like Nigeria and Kenya, where demand is heavily concentrated in the sub-$200 tier, could face sharper volume pressure.
Egypt may prove more resilient due to its local manufacturing base, while South Africa’s more mature, operator-led market structure offers some insulation through postpaid and premium demand. After a year of strong recovery, Africa’s smartphone market now faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining affordability without destabilising already cautious distribution channels. Growth in 2025 showed the continent’s appetite for connectivity remains strong. The question for 2026 is whether that appetite can withstand rising costs.
